The analysis of the economic impact of climate change on maize production under different farming systems: the case of smallholder Farmers in Jozini Municipality, KwaZulu Natal Province, South Africa

摘要

Maize is the most grown crop by the farmers in Jozini. Therefore, the main objective of the study was to assess the economic impact of climate change on maize production under different farming systems in Jozini Municipality in KwaZulu Natal (KZN). The study was looking at the smallholder farmers producing maize under dryland and irrigation system. A total of 100 farmers were selected for the study (40 from dry-land and 60 from irrigating farmers). Cluster and random sampling procedures were used to select the sample. Questionnaires were used for the collection of primary data, from the respondents (maize farmers). Data was analysed using descriptive statistics (frequency, percentages), gross margin, regression analysis and the Ricardian model. Data for computing gross margins and net revenue was taken from the on-farm trials. Gross margin was used on regression analysis and the net revenue was used on the Ricardian modelThe results of the regression analysis indicated that land size, farmer’s experience to farming, level of education, use of fertiliser, use of irrigation and the yield obtained were significant and have a positive relationship with farmers gross margin. The results of the Ricardian model indicated that climate change affects both farming systems, but farmers that are producing under dryland are the most affected farmers because they rely more on climate variables especially rainfall for their production. So a change in climate variables affects maize farmers’ productivity and thus affecting farmers’ gross margin and net revenue. The study recommends that the farmers must use irrigation in order to support maize production even in the absence of rainfall. Farmers must also adapt to the short growing season so that they will be able to produce even in the presence of climate change.