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A dynamic framework for managing the complexities of risks in megaprojects.

机译:一个动态的框架,用于管理大型项目中的风险复杂性。

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摘要

The future of mega infrastructure projects is certain - there will be more risks to manage! The challenge is being met through research and innovation combining current approaches with new. This research adopted a dynamic approach through the combination of Analytical Network Process (ANP) and system dynamics (SD) as an innovative methodology known as SDANP to model complexity in megaprojects design and construction. We communicate how the SDANP model could explore problems caused by Social, Technical, Economic, Environmental and Political (STEEP) risks to construction cost, time and performance and provide insights that lead to organizational learning. We proceed to exemplify by means of a real-life case project in the City of Edinburgh and offer suggestions on what front-ended stakeholders could do to improve the management of risks in megaprojects. The results of the application showed that, when compared to traditional risks assessment methods, this SD model with integrated ANP revealed improvements in managing risks according to STEEP risks criteria. The new framework appears to be a superior solution for solving the dynamic complexities of risks during megaproject design and construction. The findings of the study contribute to the project management theoretical development within the field of megaproject management.
机译:大型基础设施项目的未来是肯定的-将有更多的风险需要管理!通过将现有方法与新方法相结合的研究和创新来应对挑战。这项研究通过将分析网络过程(ANP)和系统动力学(SD)相结合采用了一种动态方法,这种创新方法被称为SDANP,可以对大型项目的设计和建造中的复杂性进行建模。我们交流了SDANP模型如何探索由社会,技术,经济,环境和政治(STEEP)带来的施工成本,时间和绩效风险所带来的问题,并提供了有助于组织学习的见解。我们将通过爱丁堡市的一个现实案例项目来举例说明,并就前端利益相关者可以采取哪些措施来改善大型项目的风险管理提供建议。应用程序的结果表明,与传统的风险评估方法相比,具有集成ANP的SD模型显示出根据STEEP风险标准在风险管理方面的改进。新的框架似乎是解决大型项目设计和施工过程中风险动态复杂性的绝佳解决方案。该研究的结果有助于大型项目管理领域中的项目管理理论发展。

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