Implicaciones de una Eurozona Alemanizada para el sistema monetario internacional

摘要

This paper explores the implications of the survival of the euro for the internationalmonetary system (IMS). Since the outset of the euro zone (EZ) crisis,a new Berlin-Frankfurt axis is providing leadership in reforming the EZ´sgovernance. But, in doing so, it is Germanizing EZ peripheral economies. Ifthe process is successfully completed, the EZ would become a more powerfulactor in the IMS and the euro would be more attractive for internationalinvestors. However, it is unclear if this stronger EZ would be a stabilizing or adestabilizing force for the IMS. On the one hand, a more “German” euro-zonecould have a structural current account surplus, and that could be deflationaryand problematic. On the other hand, this reborn EZ will be much more inclinedto regulate financial markets (following the ordoliberal German tradition) and,to some extent, to manage exchange rates. Finally it is unclear to what extentthe EZ would be willing to politically promote the international role of the euro