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Banking sector, stock market development and economic growth in Zimbabwe : a multivariate causality framework

机译:津巴布韦的银行业,股票市场发展和经济增长:多元因果关系框架

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摘要

The thesis examined the comprehensive causal relationship between the banking sector, stock market development and economic growth in a multi-variate framework using Zimbabwean time series data from 1988 to 2015. Three banking sector development proxies (total financial sector credit, banking credit to private sector and broad money M3) and three stock market development proxies (stock market capitalization, value traded and turnover ratio) were employed to estimate both long and short run relationships between banking sector, stock market and economic growth in Zimbabwe. The study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) as the main estimation technique and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach as a robustness testing technique.Results showed that in Zimbabwe a significant causal relationship from banking sector and stock market development to economic growth exists in the long run without any feedback effects. In the short run, however, a negative yet statistically significant causal relationship runs from economic growth to banking sector and stock market development in Zimbabwe. The study further concludes that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from stock market development to banking sector development in Zimbabwe in both short and long run periods. Nonetheless this relationship between banking sector and stock markets has been found to be more significant in the short run than in the long run. The thesis adopts the complementary view and recommends for the spontaneity implementation of monetary policies as the economy grows. Monetary authorities should thus formulate policies to promote both banks and stock markets with corresponding growth in Zimbabwe’s economy.
机译:本文使用1988年至2015年的津巴布韦时间序列数据,在多变量框架下研究了银行业,股票市场发展与经济增长之间的综合因果关系。三种银行业发展指标(金融业信贷总额,私人银行业信贷)和广义货币M3)和三个股票市场发展指标(股票市场资本化,交易价值和周转率)用于估计津巴布韦银行业,股票市场和经济增长之间的长期和短期关系。该研究采用向量误差校正模型(VECM)作为主要估计技术,采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法作为鲁棒性测试技术。结果表明,在津巴布韦,从银行业,股票市场发展到经济增长存在显着的因果关系从长远来看没有任何反馈作用。然而,在短期内,津巴布韦从经济增长到银行业和股票市场的发展都存在着负相关但在统计上很重要的因果关系。该研究进一步得出结论,无论短期还是长期,津巴布韦从股票市场发展到银行业发展都存在单向因果关系。尽管如此,从短期来看,与长期相比,银行部门与股市之间的这种关系更为重要。本文采取了补充的观点,并建议随着经济的增长,货币政策的自发实施。因此,金融当局应制定政策,促进津巴布韦经济的相应增长,以促进银行和股票市场。

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    Dzikiti Weston;

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  • 年度 2017
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