Impact on climate change and adaptation on cattle and sheep farming in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

摘要

This study focused on the impact of climate change and adaptation on small-scale cattle and sheepfarming in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Using information from 500 livestock farmersbetween 2005 and 2009 farming season, three methods of analysis were used to determine impacts ofclimate change and adaptation. They were Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Binary LogisticRegression Model (BLRM) and Heckman Probit Model (HPM). Findings revealed that cattleproduction decreased during the study period 2005 to 2009. Preliminary descriptive statistics resultsindicated that farmers had different perceptions on climate change and adaptation measures betweenthe periods 2005 and 2009. Further analysis using PCA showed that the different perceptions couldbe grouped into: (i) drought and windy weather patterns; (ii) information and adaptation; (iii) climatechange extension services; (iv) intensive cattle and sheep production; and (v) temperatures. Theresults of the BLRM indicated that the most significant factors that affected climate change andadaptation were: (i) non-farm income per annum; (ii) type of weather perceived from 2005 to 2009;(iii) livestock production and ownership; (iv) distance to weather stations; (v) distance to inputmarkets; (vi) adaptation strategies and (vii) annual average temperature. From the HPM the resultsindicated that marital status, level of education, formal extension, temperatures and the way in whichland was acquired, significantly affected awareness on climate change. Variables that significantlyaffected adaptation selections were gender, formal extension, information received on climatechange, temperatures and the way in which land was acquired.It was concluded that in the area of study, change in climate was already perceived by small-scalecattle and sheep farmers. Households that perceived differences in seasonal temperatures during thesurvey period were less likely to adapt to climate change. Having access to extension servicesincreased the likelihood of adaptation to climate change. Information on climate change to improvelivestock production appeared to play a significant role in the selection of adaptation measures. Therecommendation was that government should consider cattle and sheep farmers’ perceptions onclimate change when deciding on programmes for cattle and sheep production. It further suggestedthat the most significant factors that affected climate change, adaptation, and awareness andadaptation selections be considered when adaptation programmes are planned.