Predicting the consequences of flooding is a key issue that may help the ship master of a large passenger ship to make rational decisions in emergency situations. To this end, the Delphi Emergency Decision Support System (Delphi EDSS) has been designed and is under implementation to continuously assess ship's state of survivability. Analyses are performed by means of a time-domain simulation program, where transient stages of flooding are investigated and stored off-line for all the potential damage scenarios. The Delphi EDSS evaluates the ship risk level including the most important aspects related to safety state while establishing the time-to-capsize which is of primary concern for the safe evacuation of the damaged ship. ududThe methodology is based on a scientific approach, setting an overall platform for rational assessment of non-survivability risk. Determination of the global risk level and its components requires solution of a multicriterial problem, where the level of importance of each criterion contributing to determination of a global risk index is combined with fuzzified contributors to risk calculated at lower levels.
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机译:预测洪水的后果是一个关键问题,可以帮助大型客船的船长在紧急情况下做出合理的决定。为此,德尔福紧急决策支持系统(Delphi EDSS)已被设计并正在实施中,以不断评估船舶的生存能力。分析是通过时域仿真程序进行的,在该程序中,对洪水的瞬态阶段进行了调查,并离线存储了所有潜在破坏情景。德尔福EDSS评估船舶风险水平,包括与安全状态相关的最重要方面,同时确定可能要安全撤离受损船舶的最大倾覆时间。 ud ud该方法基于科学方法,为合理评估非生存性风险提供了一个总体平台。确定全球风险水平及其组成部分需要解决一个多准则问题,在该标准中,有助于确定全球风险指数的每个标准的重要性水平与对较低水平风险的模糊贡献因素相结合。
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