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The flight of information : new approaches for investigating aviation accident causation

机译:信息的飞行:调查航空事故因果关系的新方法

摘要

The investigation and modelling of aviation accident causation is dominated by linear models. Aviation is, however, a complex system and as such suffers from being artificially manipulated into non-complex models and methods. This thesis addresses this issue by developing a new approach to investigating aviation accident causation through information networks. These networks centralise communication and the flow of information as key indicators of a system‟s health and risk. The holistic approach focuses on the system itself rather than any individual event. The activity and communication of constituent elements, both human and non-human agents, within that system is identified and highlights areas of system failure. The model offers many potential developments and some key areas are studied in this research. Through the centralisation of barriers and information nodes the method can be applied to almost any situation. The application of Bayesian mathematics to historical data populations provides scope for studying error migration and barrier manipulation. The thesis also provides application of these predictions to a flight simulator study in an attempt of validation. Beyond this the thesis also discusses the applicability of the approach to industry. Through working with a legacy airline the methods discussed are used as the basis for a new and forward-thinking safety management system. This holistic approach focuses on the system environment, the activity that takes place within it, the strategies used to conduct this activity, the way in which the constituent parts of the system (both human and non-human) interact and the behaviour required. Each stage of this thesis identifies and expands upon the potential of the information network approach maintaining firm focus on the overall health of a system. It is contended that through the further development and application of this approach, understanding of aviation risk can be improved.
机译:航空事故因果关系的研究和建模主要由线性模型决定。但是,航空系统是一个复杂的系统,因此会被人为地操纵为非复杂的模型和方法。本文通过开发一种通过信息网络调查航空事故原因的新方法来解决此问题。这些网络将通信和信息流集中起来,作为系统健康和风险的关键指标。整体方法侧重于系统本身,而不是任何单个事件。识别该系统内组成要素(包括人类和非人类代理)的活动和交流,并突出显示系统故障的领域。该模型提供了许多潜在的发展,并且在此研究中研究了一些关键领域。通过障碍和信息节点的集中化,该方法几乎可以应用于任何情况。贝叶斯数学在历史数据种群中的应用为研究错误迁移和障碍操纵提供了空间。本文还提供了将这些预测应用于飞行模拟器研究以进行验证的尝试。除此以外,本文还讨论了该方法在工业中的适用性。通过与一家传统航空公司合作,所讨论的方法被用作新的,具有前瞻性的安全管理系统的基础。这种整体方法侧重于系统环境,在其中发生的活动,用于进行此活动的策略,系统的组成部分(人类和非人类)进行交互的方式以及所需的行为。本论文的每个阶段都确定并扩展了信息网络方法的潜力,使之始终专注于系统的整体健康状况。有人认为,通过这种方法的进一步发展和应用,可以提高对航空风险的了解。

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