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Trade flows, exchange rate uncertainty and financial depth: evidence from 28 emerging countries

机译:贸易流量,汇率不确定性和金融深度:来自28个新兴国家的证据

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摘要

This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (South-North or South-South), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either South-South or South-North, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not the least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.
机译:本文研究了实际汇率不确定性对来自28个新兴经济体的制造业出口的影响,这些新兴经济体占所有发展中国家制成品出口的82%,并通过控制贸易方向探索了不确定性影响中的异质性来源(南北或南南),以及出口国的金融发展水平。实证结果表明,对于超过一半的国家,不确定性影响是单向的,无论是南南还是南北,其中位数影响为负。此外,尽管我们发现金融发展可以促进贸易,但汇率冲击可以抵消这种影响。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,在汇率冲击下,发展中经济体之间的贸易改善了出口增长。

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