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China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification

机译:中国新的汇率制度,最优的篮子货币和货币多样化

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摘要

We build an optimising framework to analyse a class of economies that adopt an ECU-type basket currency while in transition to increased flexibility of the exchange rate regime. Instead of conventional basket pegging, such an economy uses an ECU-type currency index as a benchmark for monitoring and assessing exchange rate movements. This provides an anchoring device for the nation’s exchange rate regime and allows the home currency’s exchange rate to fluctuate. Under the assumption that the central bank is chiefly interested in maintaining stability, the optimal structure of the basket currency is based on its contribution to minimizing the volatility of the country’s external account. A currency invariance index is applied to capture the effect of the country’s exit from exclusive linkage with the US dollar. The approach is illustrated by Chinese exchange rate policy. We find it advisable and viable for China to form a basket currency with a diversified portfolio of currencies. While the portfolio’s weighting scheme could favour the dollar, euro and Japanese yen, we show that the composition of the basket is open to a wide range of possibilities. Moreover, contrary to general fears, there is considerable potential for China to engage in currency diversification, which will not necessarily affect the dollar’s position.
机译:我们建立了一个优化框架,以分析采用ECU类篮子货币的一类经济体,同时向汇率制度的灵活性过渡。代替常规的篮子挂钩,这种经济体使用ECU类型的货币指数作为监视和评估汇率变动的基准。这为国家的汇率制度提供了一种锚定工具,并允许本币的汇率波动。假设中央银行主要是对保持稳定感兴趣,那么一篮子货币的最佳结构是基于其对最大程度减少该国外部账户波动的贡献。应用货币不变性指数来捕获该国退出与美元的独家联系所产生的影响。中国的汇率政策说明了这种方法。我们认为,建立一个由多种货币组成的篮子货币是明智和可行的。尽管投资组合的加权方案可能会有利于美元,欧元和日元,但我们表明,篮子的构成有很大的可能性。而且,与普遍的担忧相反,中国有很大的潜力进行货币多元化,但这不一定会影响美元的地位。

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  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2011
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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