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Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model

机译:欧元区资产价格与货币政策:一个试探性模型

摘要

The nature of the relationship between asset price movements and monetary policy is a currently hotly debated topic in macroeconomics. This paper examines empirically if monetary policy in the euro-area, since 1987, has been influenced by high valuations of the equity and housing markets. A first aim of the paper is to assess the performance of Taylor-type rules and to evaluate whether alternative specifications, including asset prices, can better track the interest rate setting in the euro area. The general finding is that a Taylor-like rule, with an interest rate smoothing term but without including asset prices, seems to be helpful in describing monetary policy in the euro-area in the last fifteen years. Next, in the context of a simple macro model, extended with asset prices, we derive the optimal reaction function for the monetary authorities. Through a simple calibration of that model, we find that asset prices inclusion in the monetary authority’s reaction function implies a larger volatility for the interest rate and destabilizes the economy. That is, apart from demand shocks, the rule incorporating asset prices implies more volatility than a simple rule. The effect of the disturbances dies out after some periods, but the observed volatility in the variables is greater in the extended model.
机译:资产价格变动与货币政策之间关系的性质是当前宏观经济学中一个热门争论的话题。本文从经验上考察了自1987年以来欧元区的货币政策是否受到股票和房地产市场高估值的影响。本文的首要目的是评估泰勒式规则的执行情况,并评估包括资产价格在内的替代性规定是否可以更好地跟踪欧元区的利率设定。总的发现是,类似泰勒的规则,具有利率平滑期,但不包括资产价格,似乎有助于描述过去15年中欧元区的货币政策。接下来,在一个简单的宏观模型的背景下,随着资产价格的扩展,我们得出了货币当局的最优反应函数。通过对该模型的简单校准,我们发现资产价格包含在货币当局的反应函数中,意味着利率波动更大,并破坏了经济稳定。也就是说,除了需求冲击之外,包含资产价格的规则比简单的规则还意味着更大的波动性。扰动的影响会在一段时间后消失,但是在扩展模型中,变量的观测波动性更大。

著录项

  • 作者

    Luís Pacheco;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2004
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
  • 中图分类

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