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Analyzing Time-Frequency Relationship between Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Pakistan through Wavelets

机译:用小波分析巴基斯坦油价与汇率的时频关系

摘要

This study analyzes the time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency. The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicate that covariance between oil price and exchange rate are unable to give clear-cut results but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10~15 months scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate. However; in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.
机译:本研究通过使用连续小波(例如小波功率,交叉小波功率和交叉小波相干性)的度量分析了巴基斯坦石油价格与汇率之间的时频关系。交叉小波分析的结果表明,油价和汇率之间的协方差无法给出明确的结果,但是在某些方面,变量都处于同相和异相状态(即,它们本质上是反周期性和周期性的)持续时间。然而,小波相干平方的结果表明,在整个研究期间,这两个变量都异相并且实际汇率处于领先地位,对应于10〜15个月的量表。这些结果是本研究的独特贡献,如果使用其他任何基于时间序列或频域的方法,则将无法得出这些结果。这一发现为油价与实际有效汇率之间的反周期关系提供了证据。然而;在研究的大部分时期中,实际汇率是主导和传递反周期效应对石油价格冲击的作用,这是该研究的主要贡献。

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