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Inclusive Growth Strategies for Pakistan: Myth or Reality for Policymakers!

机译:巴基斯坦包容性增长战略:政策制定者的神话或现实!

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摘要

The mantra of inclusive growth is taking over the public policy debates addressing poverty alleviation and sustained development in the developing world. In order to reduce poverty substantially, rapid pace of growth is not only necessary, but it should be sustainable in the long run and broad-based across sectors, nonetheless, inclusive of country’s labour force at large. Poverty and growth were much discussed and analysed in separation by policymakers in the previous decades. Inclusive growth strategy is an integration of these two strands of analyses implying relationship between the macro and micro determinants of growth. This paper examines the nature of relationship between the macroeconomic and social-development indicators by using a Multiple Regression Framework and Vector Auto Regression Model, as proposed by Toda-Yamamoto, is used to determine the direction of causality between the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan over the period of 1997-98s to 2009-10. The paper critically examines Inclusive growth paradigm ─ for market led growth, and suggests its weaknesses which can be addressed through review of the pro-poor goals of economic policy of Post Washington Consensus (PWC). Finally, the paper urges to explore the myths and realities of inclusive growth strategies for policymakers in Pakistan to identify and prioritize the Pakistan specific constraints i.e. Low spending on health and education, promote growth in agriculture and rural development for sustained and inclusive growth.
机译:包容性增长的口头禅正在接管有关发展中国家减轻贫困和可持续发展的公共政策辩论。为了大幅减少贫困,快速增长不仅是必要的,而且从长远来看应该是可持续的,而且跨部门广泛,包括整个国家的劳动力。在过去的几十年中,政策制定者对贫困与增长进行了大量讨论和分析。包容性增长战略是这两部分分析的整合,暗示了增长的宏观和微观决定因素之间的关系。本文使用Toda-Yamamoto提出的多元回归框架和向量自回归模型,检验了宏观经济和社会发展指标之间关系的性质,该模型用于确定巴基斯坦关键宏观经济变量之间因果关系的方向。 1997-98年代至2009-10期间。这篇论文严格审查了包容性增长范式-市场主导的增长,并提出了它的弱点,可以通过回顾《华盛顿后共识》(PWC)的有利于穷人的经济政策目标来解决。最后,本文敦促探索包容性增长战略的神话和现实,以供巴基斯坦决策者确定并优先考虑巴基斯坦的具体制约因素,即在医疗和教育方面的低支出,促进农业和农村发展的增长以实现持续和包容性增长。

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