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Asset allocation approach to understanding stock market dynamics

机译:资产配置方法,以了解股市动态

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摘要

Equity portfolio managers typically convey instructions to their traders in the form of target portfolio weights for the various shares in their portfolio. We present a set of differential equations that allows the calculation of the share prices, number of shares, and value of each manager's portfolio over time, in terms of share weights. It is also necessary to know the amount of cash flowing into each portfolio and the number of each type of shares outstanding.We suggest some potentially useful information that might be derived from this formalism, such as a quantitative estimate of the main driver of share price changes, the influence of index investing on the market, and the origin of the equity premium.We believe that this realistic method could be the basis for a better understanding of how financial markets operate, as compared with the conventional academic approach. In our view standard asset pricing theory makes implausible assumptions about the existence of stochastic processes, the ability of participants to foretell the future, and their capacity to make sound deductions from the information they have. Even an imperfect alternative should be better than that house of cards.
机译:股票投资组合经理通常以其投资组合中各个股票的目标投资组合权重的形式向交易者传达指令。我们提出了一组微分方程,可以根据股价权重来计算股价,股份数量以及每个经理的投资组合随时间的价值。还需要知道流入每个投资组合的现金量和每种已发行股票的数量。我们建议一些可能有用的信息,可以从这种形式主义中得出,例如对股价主要驱动因素的定量估计变化,指数投资对市场的影响以及股票溢价的起源。我们认为,与传统的学术方法相比,这种现实的方法可能是更好地了解金融市场运作方式的基础。在我们看来,标准资产定价理论对随机过程的存在,参与者预测未来的能力以及他们从所掌握的信息中进行合理推论的能力做出了难以置信的假设。即使是不完善的替代方案也应该比那套纸牌屋更好。

著录项

  • 作者

    Nuttall John;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2006
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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