The Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Region- The Case for South Africa

摘要

EPAs between the EU and ACP countries can be viewed as being anti mercantilist and there has been a lot of speculations about their outcome. The aim of the study is to determine the effects of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) members using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 7. Two scenarios are analysed: first when the other SACU member states sign the EPAs with the EU excluding South Africa and secondly when the entire SACU member states including South Africa sign a full EPA with the EU. Results show that South Africa does stand to lose when the other member states sign. However, signing of the EPA of the SACU as a bloc, including South Africa result in welfare gain in the region. Significantly, there is an increased export of livestock and processed foods to the EU from SACU region meaning that the region stands to gain in promoting these industries after an EPA. Besides these two sectors, most of the other sectors tend to lose out. It should be noted that full benefits of trade liberalisation agreements depend on speed of industry reform and therefore can only be realised in the long run.