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Does Latin America lag behind due to shaper recessions and/or slower recoveries?

机译:由于整形衰退和/或较慢的复苏,拉丁美洲是否落后?

摘要

Since the 1950’s Latin America and the Caribbean have lost relative income share on a consistent basis in relation to the World and the developed countries on average. This paper presents a regional comparative statistical and econometric analysis for 1950-2007 for seven regions in the world, showing that for Latin America and the Caribbean convergence results mainly from weak expansions. Contractions have, as expected, a negative effect on the performance of Latin America and the Caribbean in historical perspective. At the same time in comparison to other regions, Latin America and the Caribbean recover quickly. Contrarily during expansions Latin America and the Caribbean tend to perform below the World and developing World regional average. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are, from a regional comparative perspective, ‘good’ at withstanding the negative effects of contractions and ‘bad’ at taking advantage of expansions to achieve convergence with the developed world. The paper argues that instead of viewing expansions through the lens of ‘crisis management,’ expansions should be seen and understood as an opportunity to grow and expand and promote greater levels of well-being, employment and equity in the region.
机译:自1950年代以来,相对于世界和发达国家,拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的收入相对份额一直处于持续下降的状态。本文介绍了世界上七个地区在1950-2007年间的区域比较统计和计量经济分析,结果表明拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的趋同主要来自弱势扩张。从历史的角度看,收缩对拉丁美洲和加勒比的表现产生了负面影响。与其他地区相比,拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的复苏很快。相反,在扩张期间,拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的表现往往低于世界和发展中世界的区域平均水平。从区域比较的角度来看,拉丁美洲和加勒比海国家“擅长”承受收缩带来的负面影响,而“坏”则善于利用扩张来实现与发达国家的融合。该论文认为,与其从“危机管理”的角度看待扩张,不应该将扩张视为和理解为扩大,扩大和促进该地区福祉,就业和平等水平的机会。

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