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Impacts of External Price Shocks on Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

机译:外部价格冲击对马来西亚宏观经济的影响 - 应用一般均衡分析

摘要

This paper examines the impacts of external price shocks in the Malaysian economy. There are three simulations are carried out with different degrees of external shocks using Malaysian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The model results indicate that the import price shocks, better known as external price shocks by 15% decreases the domestic production of building and construction sector by 25.87%, hotels, restaurants and entertainment sector by 12.04%, industry sector by 12.02%, agriculture sector by 11.01%, and electricity and gas sector by 9.55% from the baseline. On the import side, our simulation results illustrate that as a result of the import price shocks by 15%, imports decreases significantly in all sectors from base level. Among the scenarios, the largest negative impacts goes on industry sectors by 29.67% followed by building and construction sector by 22.42%, hotels, restaurants and entertainment sector by 19.45%, electricity and gas sector by 13.%, agriculture sector by 12.63% and other service sectors by 11.17%. However significant negative impact goes to the investment and fixed capital investment. It also causes the household income, household consumption and household savings down and increases the cost of livings in the economy results in downward social welfare.
机译:本文研究了外部价格冲击对马来西亚经济的影响。使用马来西亚社会核算矩阵(SAM)和可计算一般均衡(CGE)分析,对三种不同程度的外部冲击进行了模拟。模型结果表明,进口价格冲击(通常为外部价格冲击)降低了15%,建筑业和建筑业的国内生产量下降了25.87%,旅馆,饭店和娱乐业的国内生产量下降了12.04%,工业部门的国内生产量下降了12.02%,农业部门比基准下降了11.01%,电力和天然气部门下降了9.55%。在进口方面,我们的模拟结果表明,由于进口价格冲击了15%,所有部门的进口均较基准水平大幅下降。在这些情景中,对工业部门的负面影响最大,其次是建筑业,建筑业,建筑业,建筑业,建筑业和建筑业,分别为22.42%,19.45%,电力和天然气,农业和农业,分别为13.6%和12.63%。其他服务业增长11.17%。但是,这会对投资和固定资本投资产生重大负面影响。它还导致家庭收入,家庭消费和家庭储蓄下降,并增加经济中的生活成本,导致社会福利下降。

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