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The dynamic process of economic takeoff and industrial transformation

机译:经济起飞和产业转型的动态过程

摘要

This paper studies the patterns and key determinants of staged economic development. We construct a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model populated with one-period lived non-overlapping generations, featuring endogenous enhancement in modern technology and endogenous accumulation of labor skills and capital funds. We consider preference biases toward the traditional sector of necessities, capital barriers to the modern sector, and imperfect substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. By calibrating the model to �t historic U.S. development, we fi�nd that modern technologies, saving incentives and capital fundings are most important determinants of the takeoff time. By evaluating the process of economic development, we identify that saving incentives is most crucial for the speed of modernization. We also study how labor and capital allocations toward the modern industry respond to various preference, technology and institutional changes. We further establish that labor, capital and output are most responsive to the initial stateof modern technologies but least responsive to the initial state of skills, along the dynamic transition path.
机译:本文研究了阶段性经济发展的模式和关键决定因素。我们构建了一个两阶段动态的一般均衡模型,该模型填充了一个有生命周期的非重叠世代,其特征是现代技术的内生性增强以及劳动技能和资本金的内生性积累。我们认为偏好偏向于传统的必需品部门,现代部门的资本壁垒以及熟练工人和不熟练工人之间的不完全替代。通过校准模型以适应美国的历史发展,我们发现现代技术,节省激励措施和资本金是决定起飞时间的最重要因素。通过评估经济发展过程,我们发现节省激励措施对现代化的速度至关重要。我们还研究了对现代产业的劳动力和资本配置如何响应各种偏好,技术和制度变化。我们进一步证明,沿着动态过渡路径,劳动力,资本和产出对现代技术的初始状态响应最强,而对技能的初始状态响应最弱。

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