Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: Evidence from structural vector auto-regression

摘要

This paper develops a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model for the Ghanaian economy to estimate the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes to consumer prices. The model incorporates the special features of the Ghanaian economy, especially its dependence on foreign aid and primary commodity exports for foreign exchange earnings. The findings show that the pass-through to consumer prices, although incomplete, is substantially large. This suggests that exchange rate depreciation is a potentially important source of inflation in Ghana. Using variance decomposition analyses, it is found that monetary expansion has been more important in explaining Ghana’s actual inflationary process than the exchange rate depreciation. One policy implication of these findings is that policies that aim at lowering inflation must focus on monetary and exchange rate stability.