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The Volatility of Thai Rice Price

机译:泰国大米价格的波动性

摘要

This study was conducted to explore the varying volatility of world rice price for the period 1961 to 2008 using monthly data. The paper provides estimates of two GARCH models, namely, GARCH and EGARCH which were used to capture the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the world rice price. The results indicate that EGARCH model gives better estimate of the volatility of world rice price. Furthermore the EGARCH model was able to describe the asymmetric volatility in the world price of rice. It was further discovered that the positive shocks (good news) is more dominant than the negative shock (bad news).
机译:这项研究的目的是使用月度数据探索1961年至2008年期间世界大米价格的波动性。本文提供了两个GARCH模型(即GARCH和EGARCH)的估计值,这两个模型用于捕获世界大米价格的随机变化和不对称性。结果表明,EGARCH模型可以更好地估算世界大米价格的波动性。此外,EGARCH模型能够描述世界大米价格的不对称波动。进一步发现,积极的冲击(好消息)比消极的冲击(坏消息)更重要。

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