Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle

摘要

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in theliterature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account forthe outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature.