Study on Economic Carrying Capacity of Industries Transfer from the Coastal areas to the Central region in China based on Employment Change Forecast

摘要

Abstract: Nowadays, industry transfer from the coastal areas to the central region and the west areas hasbecome an essential measure for our national adjusting of industrial layout. Because the central region has a superior location advantage of undertaking east and opening west, it becomes key areas for undertaking industries.Therefore, whether the economic carrying capacity of the central region can adapt to this large-scale industrial transfer will be the key to seize the opportunity. According to the experience of international industrial transfer, large-scale industrial transfer is bound to bring about inevitably rapid increase in employment, so the article tries touse the three industrial employment data of the three central region provinces (Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan) and thethree coastal provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) from 1978 to 2010, and then constructs the ARIMA modelto forecast the employment of three industries from 2011 to 2015. Through comparatively analyzing prediction ofemployment changes of the central and the coastal provinces in the next few years, it will resolve some problems such as the economic carrying capacity of the central region undertaking the coastal industrial transfer, and three conclusions have been pointed out: 1) taking the coastal economic carrying capacity as a benchmark, the economic carrying capacity of the central region has not been saturated; 2)viewing the prediction of employment changes of the coastal and central region, the coastal industrial transfer has not formed in scale trend in the next few years; 3)from the terms of the changes of the future growth of the three industries, the undeveloped secondary industry is the bottleneck factor in restricting the improvement of economic carrying capacity for undertaking the coastal industrial transfer, and the low proportion of the third industry in the coastal areas is the viscosity factor in restricting the transfer of industries to the central region.