Economic reforms, technological intensity and industrial development in India

摘要

The impact of the 1991 reforms on the Indianmanufacturing sector has been a subject of muchdebate. The reforms were expected to result in a highgrowth rate coupled with a structural change towardshigh technology industries. This paper analyses data on60 three-digit industries, reclassified into fourtechnology-intensive subgroups, for the period 1980-81to 2005-06. Dividing this period into the pre-reform(1980-81 to 1991-92) and the post-reform (1992-93 to2005-06), the paper uses the single kinked model toreveal a slower trend growth rate of value added forabout 77% of the industries in the post-reform period.Further, the study does not find any significant structuraltransformations within the organised manufacturingsector, which is still dominated by relatively lowtechnology industries. The results thus refute theneo-liberal optimism regarding reforms. In anincreasingly technology-driven world, promotingindustrialisation is a multidimensional complex task thatrequires a constructive role of the government.