Development of a simulation tool for analysis of freeway crashes due to cell phone usage

摘要

Research shows that drivers are susceptible to numerous distractions while driving which can be held responsible as the reason of a crash. Usage of cell phones, i.e. talking or texting while driving is considered one of the prominent distractions which causes a crash. This dissertation aims to study the number of crashes occurring on the freeways and their relation with the drivers of these cars using cell phones while they are driving. Since crashes occur relatively less frequently, the study of crashes is done using what is called the u22rare eventu22 theory. Java based simulations are done to model a six lane freeway. The cars travelling on the freeway are assigned probabilities of having and using a cell phone. This in turn leads to a probability of getting distracted and changing their normal behaviour which may or may not cause a crash. A Life table is constructed using the data observed for 24 hours and using the techniques described in the thesis, it is analysed to see which rare event probabilistic model it fits into.