Urban Scale Modeling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Validation of Emission Inventories

摘要

There exists a pressing need for high resolution emissions inventories for cities. For greenhouse gases, cities and regions need a careful analysis of their carbon footprint to design effective policies to control and mitigate emissions. High resolution emissions inventories can be used in conjunction with meteorology models and atmospheric measurements to place top-down constraints on emissions. High resolution emissions inventories for criteria pollutants like NOx, CO, and O3 enable urban-scale air pollution modeling down to the neighborhood level. For example, the Vulcan project estimates CO2 using county-scale vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) County Database (NCD). The Hestia Project similarly allocates CO2 from Vulcan’s county-level inventory down to the building scale using eQUEST and building footprints.On-road transport is the most important sector for anthropogenic CO2, 38% in Portland, 32% nationally. Here we show a new model of CO2 emissions for the Portland, OR metropolitan region. The backbone is traffic counter recordings made by the Portland Bureau of Transportation at 9,352 sites over 21 years (1986-2006), augmented with PORTAL (The Portland Regional Transportation Archive Listing) freeway data.We constructed a regression model to fill in traffic network gaps using GIS data such as road class and population density. EPA MOVES was used to estimate transportation CO2 emissions. Our transportation emissions served as input into WRF meteorological modeling to simulate atmospheric CO2 at sites where frequent CO2 measurements are made. We show preliminary model results.