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Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimization approach

机译:将气候和经济模型结合在成本效益框架中:凸优化方法

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摘要

In this paper we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99 we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed . We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了一种基于凸优化技术的通用方法,该方法可在成本效益框架内促进气候模型与经济模型的耦合。作为方法的证明,我们将DICE-99改编的拉姆西经济增长模型与高效的中等复杂度气候模型C-GOLDSTEIN结合在一起,该模型具有高度简化的物理原理,但具有完整的3D海洋动力学。像在DICE-99中一样,我们假定经济成本与全球温度变化有关:这种变化是从气候模型中获得的,而气候模型是由经济增长路径计算出的温室气体浓度驱动的。这项工作扩展了以前的论文,其中这些模型以成本效益模式进行耦合。在这里,我们考虑了更为复杂的成本-收益耦合关系,其中气候影响不是固定的。我们使用基于oracle的优化技术来实现耦合模型。每个模型都包含在一个oracle中,该oracle向主程序提供模型输出和有关其敏感性的信息。 Proximal-ACCPM算法可在足够的凸度假设下保证过程的收敛性。我们的结果证明了使用3-D气候模型进行一致的成本效益,气候破坏优化分析的可能性。

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