The Modernization of Turkey’s Customs Union with theEuropean Union: Reasons and Possible Outcomes. EU Diplomacy Paper 09/2017

摘要

This paper seeks to explain why, in May 2015, the European Union (EU) and Turkey havechosen to modernize their Customs Union instead of directly completing Turkey’saccession process, how they will most likely do so, and the implications thereof forTurkish EU membership. I argue that Turkey and the EU seek to modernize the CustomsUnion because of the EU’s increased quest for bilateral free trade agreements afterthe failure to conclude the Doha Development Round, the flawed implementation ofthe institutional provisions of the 1963 Ankara Agreement, and the stalemate in EUaccession negotiations. The Customs Union is likely to be modernized by liberalizingagriculture, services and public procurement and by improving the implementationof the 1963 Ankara Agreement. The modernized Customs Union will most probably bethe institutional basis for EU-Turkey relations in the near future. However, in a betterfuture conjuncture of bilateral relations, it may then serve as a further step for Turkey’saccession to the EU.