EUFOR Althea: Appraisal and Future Perspectives of the EU’s Former Flagship Operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. EU Diplomacy Paper 07/2011, October 2011

摘要

On 2 December 2004 the European Union launched the operation EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was its hitherto largest CSDP operation. The fundamental strategic objective has been the contribution to a ‘safe and secure environment’ in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Throughout its deployment the operation has been evolving with regard to its size, its structures and its precise tasks and objectives. Today, the force level has, on the one hand, reached a critical number and it seems questionable whether an effective intervention would still be possible if large-scale and violent conflicts re-emerged. On the other hand, the EU has increased its efforts in the capacity-building and training of the Bosnian authorities and, in particular, the armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina.The present paper undertakes an analysis and evaluation of this operation with regard to the development of its tasks, size and structure and draws conclusions suggesting three possible future scenarios. Besides the conclusion that the operation can generally be considered a success, the analysis and the evaluation of the future prospects highlight that the operation is still evolving and might be in a crucial phase right now. When looking at the conditions on the ground and the perceived (lack of) willingness of the contributing nations concerning continued commitments, the current structure no longer seems appropriate. The author therefore recommends an adaptation of the mandate and a restructuring of the whole operation with regard to its composition and focus. This restructuring should, on the one hand, imply the continuation and further strengthening of the capacity-building, training and monitoring dimensions. On the other hand, the purely military dimension of the operation should, at least, be reconsidered and eventually terminated.