EU3-Iranian Nuclear Diplomacy: Implications for US Policy in the Middle East. EUMA Papers, Vol. 4 No. 6 March 2007

摘要

[Introduction]. Given present concerns about proliferation in the Middle East, it is useful to analyze the impact of EU3-Iranian nuclear diplomacy starting in 2002-2003 and assess its implications for US regional policy. A logical place to start is Waltz’s third image,1 the international system, which influenced the Europeans to engage Iran. In order to understand the nature of negotiations about nuclear politics, it is essential to consider that our understanding of the internal context within Iran is defined by bounded rationality. The dynamics of the 2003 agreement with Tehran provide a point of reference before considering the ways in which Iranian domestic changes impacted on the Europeans diplomatic efforts over time, including the leadership demonstrated by an influential negotiator, High Representative Javier Solana. The focus is on the Iranian decision to enrich uranium. Action taken by the Europeans as well as the United States, Russia, and China to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and to impose sanctions on the regime in December 2006 illustrates the limits of EU3 diplomacy. The discussion closes with a perspective on the latest step at the United Nations in terms of US regional policy as the conflict with Iraq continues.