SOFTWARE DESIGN TO RISK ANALYSIS OF PADDY PRODUCTION WITH ENSO INDICATORS (CASE-STUDY: EAST JAVA)

摘要

Indonesia known as agrarian country, it caused by most its people are farmers. The level of paddy production in East Java was highest compared to other provinces. However, its level of production has decreased in recent years. This was caused by the lack of knowledge about risk management in paddy production. One of knowledge should be known is the change of seasons. In fact, the change of seasons was difficult to predicted due to global climate disruption. In previous study, ENSO was used to climate forecasts for decision-making in agriculture. A risk assessment framework could be used in policy decision-making processes. In this paper, we discuss about architecture design for decision support system (DSS) to risk of paddy production in East Java with ENSO indicators. ENSO indicators are SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies, as predictor variables. Harvested area in East Java as respons variable. Predictor and respons variables is identified their correlation using Copula correlation. Estimation of harvested area is constructed using Robust regression model. The prediction level of risk of paddy production is determined using confidence interval (CI). The last, we construct DSS components, database systems, and user interface design. udKey words: Decision Support Systems (DSS), agriculture, ENSO, copula correlation, robust regression