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Investment and risk appraisal in Energy Storage Systems: a real options approach

机译:能源储存系统的投资和风险评估:一种实物期权方法

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摘要

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy is becoming a key challenge for the management of the electrical grid. Electrical Energy Storage Systems (ESS) are one of the most suitable solutions to increase the flexibility and resilience of the electrical system. This paper presents an innovative methodology for the appraisal of the investment in ESS. The methodology is based on the Real Option Analysis and it is able to properly consider investment risks and uncertainties as well as the options available for the investor. The paper assesses the value of the option to wait for a change in the market conditions before investing and re-evaluates the profitability of the investment after each step of the development of the ESS project. In order to exemplify relevant results, this method is applied to the UK energy market and assesses the technical and economic feasibility of investing in ESS operating price arbitrage and Short Term Operating Reserves. The results show that the implementation of the Real Option Analysis increases the economic performance of ESS. Nevertheless, ESS still requires limited incentives to be economically viable.
机译:可变可再生能源的日益普及正成为电网管理的关键挑战。电能存储系统(ESS)是提高电气系统的灵活性和弹性的最合适的解决方案之一。本文提出了一种创新的方法来评估对ESS的投资。该方法基于实物期权分析,能够适当考虑投资风险和不确定性以及可供投资者使用的期权。本文评估了在投资之前等待市场状况变化的期权的价值,并在ESS项目开发的每个步骤之后重新评估了投资的盈利能力。为了举例说明相关结果,此方法应用于英国能源市场,并评估了投资ESS运营价格套利和短期运营储备的技术和经济可行性。结果表明,实物期权分析的实施提高了ESS的经济绩效。尽管如此,《环境与社会标准》仍然需要有限的激励措施才能在经济上可行。

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