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Application of bayesian techniques for the identification of accident-prone road sections

机译:贝叶斯技术在事故多发路段识别中的应用

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摘要

The use of Bayesian techniques for the identification of accident-prone road sections has become very important in recent years. The objective of this investigation consisted of identifying accident-prone road sections in the Municipality of Ocaña (Colombia) using the Bayesian Method (BM); the modeling approach developed involved the creation of a database of accidents that occurred between the years 2007 (January) and 2013 (August) and the application of the methodology on 15 sections of urban road. The final analyses show that the BM is an original and fast tool that is easily implemented, it provides results in which 4 accident-prone or dangerous road sections were identified and ranked them in order of danger, establishing a danger ranking that provides a prioritization for investments and the implementation of preventive and/or corrective policies that will maximize benefits associated with road safety.
机译:近年来,使用贝叶斯技术来识别容易发生事故的路段变得非常重要。这项调查的目的是使用贝叶斯方法(BM)识别奥卡尼亚(哥伦比亚)市内容易发生事故的路段;开发的建模方法涉及创建一个在2007年(1月)至2013年(8月)之间发生的事故数据库,并将该方法应用于城市道路的15个路段。最终分析表明,BM是一种易于实施的原始且快速的工具,它提供的结果可识别出4个容易发生事故或危险的路段,并按危险等级对其进行排名,从而建立危险等级,从而为投资和实施预防和/或纠正政策,以最大程度地提高与道路安全相关的收益。

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