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China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?

机译:中国和印度在全球贸易和金融中的作用 - 新千年的双重巨头?

摘要

This paper analyses the integration of China and India into the global economy. To this end, it presents estimates from a gravity model to gauge the overall degree of their trade intensity and the depth of their bilateral trade linkages, as well as selected measures of revealed comparative advantage and economic distance. The paper also reviews the key characteristics of the two countriesu2019 domestic economies that are relevant to their global integration and analyses their financial linkages with the rest of the world. Four main fi ndings stand out. First, considering trade in goods, the overall degree of Chinau2019s trade intensity is higher than fundamentals would suggest, whereas the converse is true for India. Second, Chinese goods exports seem to compete increasingly with those of mature economies, while Indian exports remain more low-tech. Third, Chinau2019s exports of services tend to complement its exports of goods, while Indiau2019s exports are growing only in deregulated sectors, such as IT-related services. Last, Chinau2019s and Indiau2019s roles in the global financial system are still relatively limited and often complementary to their roles in global trade.
机译:本文分析了中国和印度融入全球经济的情况。为此,它提出了一个引力模型的估计值,以衡量它们的贸易强度的总体程度和双边贸易联系的深度,以及揭示比较优势和经济距离的选定措施。本文还回顾了与两国全球一体化相关的两国国内经济的主要特征,并分析了它们与世界其他地区的金融联系。有四个主要发现。首先,考虑到货物贸易,中国的贸易强度总体水平高于基本面所暗示的水平,而印度则相反。其次,中国的商品出口似乎与成熟经济体的竞争越来越激烈,而印度的出口仍是技术含量较低的国家。第三,中国的服务出口往往会补充其商品出口,而印度的出口仅在放松管制的行业中增长,例如与IT相关的服务。最后,中国和印度在全球金融体系中的作用仍然相对有限,通常是对它们在全球贸易中的作用的补充。

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