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Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances

机译:欧洲内部贸易的抵押品不平衡?计算毛额和增值贸易差额之间的差额

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摘要

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners.
机译:最新的关于全球价值链的文献提出的一个典型的事实是,双边贸易总额的失衡可能与以增加值计量的失衡有很大不同。但是,到目前为止,尚未研究这两种措施之间差异程度和迹象的潜在因素。在这里,我们提出了一种双边贸易总余额的新颖分解方法,可以解释总值和增值概念之间的差异。双边分析通过确定实际在国际贸易统计中首次记录有增加值的贸易流,从概念上为有关贸易重复计算的文献作出了贡献。我们将分解框架应用于1995-2011年欧盟27国内部贸易余额的发展,并表明欧盟内部双边贸易余额中份额的增长是由于两个直接贸易伙伴以外的国家的需求所致。

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