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The deep historical roots of macroeconomic volatility

机译:宏观经济波动的深层历史根源

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摘要

We present cross-country evidence that a country's macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country's historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of state-level political institutions experience less macroeconomic volatility in postwar periods. Robustness checks reveal that the effect of this historical variable on volatility remains significant and substantial after controlling for a host of structural variables investigated in previous studies. We also find that the state history variable is more important in countries with a higher level of macroeconomic volatility.
机译:我们提供的跨国证据表明,一国的宏观经济波动性(通过产出增长的标准偏差或趋势增长突破的发生来衡量)会严重受该国历史变量的影响。特别是,历史悠久的国家级政治机构的国家在战后时期经历的宏观经济波动较小。稳健性检查表明,在控制了先前研究中研究的许多结构变量之后,该历史变量对波动率的影响仍然显着而重要。我们还发现,国家历史变量在宏观经济波动程度较高的国家中更为重要。

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