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Local thinking and skewness preferences

机译:局部思维和偏斜偏好

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摘要

We show that continuous models of stimulus-driven attention can account for skewness-related puzzles in decision-making under risk. First,we delineate that these models provide awell-defined theory of choice under risk. We therefore prove that in continuous - in contrast to discrete - models of stimulus-driven attention each lottery has a unique certainty equivalent that is monotonic in probabilities (i.e., it monotonically increases if probability mass is shifted to more favorable outcomes). Second, we show that whether an agent seeks or avoids a specific risk depends on the skewness of the underlying probability distribution. Since unlikely, but outstanding payoffs attract attention, an agent exhibits a preference for right-skewed and an aversion toward left-skewed risks. While cumulative prospect theory can also account for such skewness preferences, it yields implausible predictions on their magnitude. We show that these extreme implications can be ruled out for continuous models of stimulus-driven attention.
机译:我们表明,刺激驱动的注意力的连续模型可以解释风险下决策中与偏度有关的难题。首先,我们描述了这些模型提供了风险明确的选择理论。因此,我们证明了在刺激驱动注意力的连续模型(与离散模型相反)中,每张彩票具有唯一的确定性等值,该等价性在概率上是单调的(即,如果将概率质量转移到更有利的结果上,则单调增加)。其次,我们表明代理商是寻求还是回避特定风险取决于潜在概率分布的偏度。既然不可能,但是卓著的回报引起了人们的注意,代理人表现出对右偏的偏爱以及对左偏的风险的厌恶。尽管累积前景理论也可以解释这种偏度偏好,但它对它们的严重性却产生了难以置信的预测。我们表明,对于刺激驱动的注意力的连续模型,可以排除这些极端的影响。

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