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The great moderation in international capital flows: a global phenomenon?

机译:国际资本流动的大幅度放缓:全球现象?

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摘要

This paper highlights a recent u2018great moderationu2019 in global capital flows, characterised by smaller volumes and lower volatility of cross-border transactions. However, there are substantial differences across countries and regions which we analyse by comparing the level of international capital flows observed in 2005-06, immediately prior to the onset of the global financial crisis, to the post-crisis period of 2013-14, when global flows arguably settled at a u2018new normalu2019. We find that since the pre-crisis period, gross capital inflows recovered more for economies with smaller pre-crisis external and internal imbalances, lower per capita income, improving growth expectations, a less severe impact of the global financial crisis and less stringent macroprudential policy. On the asset side, countries with a more accommodative monetary policy, a milder impact of the crisis and oil exporters managed to increase gross capital outflows in the post-crisis period.
机译:本文着重介绍了最近全球资本流动的大幅放缓,其特点是跨境交易的规模较小且波动性较低。但是,我们将不同国家和地区之间的实质性差异进行了比较,我们将全球金融危机爆发前的2005-06年与2013-14年危机后时期(当时)的国际资本流动水平进行了比较可以说,全球流量稳定在新的正常水平。我们发现,自危机前以来,危机前外部和内部失衡较小,人均收入较低,经济增长预期提高,全球金融危机影响较小,宏观审慎政策宽松的经济体的资本总流入有所恢复。在资产方面,货币政策较为宽松的国家,危机影响较小的国家以及石油出口国在危机后时期设法增加了总资本流出。

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