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Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?

机译:中国和石油出口国是否影响主要货币配置?

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摘要

This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and reserve compositions mostly kept secret, the identification strategy of the paper is to analyse the market impact on major currency pairs of official statements made by EME policy-makers about their exchange rate regime and reserve composition. Developing a novel database for 18 EMEs, we find that such statements not only have a statistically but also an economically significant impact on the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen against the US dollar. The findings suggest that communication hinting at a weakening of EMEsu2019 US dollar focus contributed substantially to the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar in recent years. Interestingly, EME policy-makers appear to have become more cautious in their communication more recently. Overall, the results underscore the growing systemic importance of EMEs for global exchange rate configurations.
机译:本文分析了从对系统重要性的新兴市场经济体(EME)的美元重点转移到美元,欧元和日元之间的配置的影响。鉴于固定或管理的美元汇率制度仍然普遍存在且储备构成基本保密的困难,本文的识别策略是分析市场对EME政策制定者就其汇率发表的官方声明对主要货币对的影响政权和储备构成。通过为18个EME建立一个新颖的数据库,我们发现这样的陈述不仅对欧元产生统计上的影响,而且对经济产生重大影响,日元对美元的影响较小。调查结果表明,通信暗示新兴市场经济体对美元的关注减弱,这在很大程度上推动了欧元兑美元近年来的升值。有趣的是,EME政策制定者似乎在最近的沟通中变得更加谨慎。总体而言,结果强调了新兴市场经济体对全球汇率配置的日益重要的系统重要性。

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