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Ethiopia: An agrarian economy in transition

机译:埃塞俄比亚:转型期的农业经济

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摘要

Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth since 2005. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 10.5 per cent per annum for the period between 2004-05 and 2013-14. Public investment in key infrastructure and interventions in the agriculture sector have made important contributions to GDP growth. This growth has been accompanied by a process of capital deepening and signs of structural shift away from traditional and primary sectors towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Both processes of high growth and structural shift have important implications for poverty reduction and income distribution. One potential channel through which these influences work is the labour market. The indications of structural transformation that Ethiopia has shown in the last decade, including a continuous decline in the role of agriculture and rise in that of services, have led to reallocation of jobs and labour from low-productivity agriculture to more productive industrial - in particular the construction sub-sector - and service sectors. The rise in total factor productivity, overall increase in labour force participation rate, and fall in the labour share of the agriculture sector are indicative of the nature and extent of structural shift in the Ethiopian economy. A more durable shift of economic activities towards the manufacturing sector is expected to follow the rising trend in investment in the sector. This study explores the impact of the high economic growth and slow but unmistakable structural change on a number of economic outcomes working through the labour market. The growth opportunities and challenges of the Ethiopian economy are also discussed.
机译:自2005年以来,埃塞俄比亚经历了快速的经济增长。2004-05年至2013-14年期间,实际国内生产总值(GDP)平均每年增长10.5%。对关键基础设施的公共投资和对农业部门的干预为GDP增长做出了重要贡献。这种增长伴随着资本深化的过程以及从传统和第一产业向第二和第三产业结构转变的迹象。高增长和结构转变这两个过程对减贫和收入分配都具有重要意义。这些影响工作的潜在渠道之一是劳动力市场。埃塞俄比亚在过去十年中显示出结构转型的迹象,包括农业作用的持续下降和服务业的上升,导致工作和劳动力从低生产率农业向特别是高生产率工业的重新分配,特别是建筑子行业-服务业。全要素生产率的提高,劳动力参与率的总体提高以及农业部门劳动力份额的下降表明了埃塞俄比亚经济结构转变的性质和程度。经济活动向制造业的持久转移预计将跟随该领域投资的增长趋势。这项研究探讨了高速经济增长和缓慢但无误的结构变化对通过劳动力市场产生的许多经济成果的影响。还讨论了埃塞俄比亚经济的增长机遇和挑战。

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