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Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model

机译:利用删失加性回归模型对复杂地形上的时空降水气候学进行研究

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摘要

Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero-observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero-observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.
机译:灵活的时空模型被广泛用于创建可靠,准确的降水气候估算。大多数模型基于平方根变换的月度或年度均值,而正态分布似乎是合适的。该假设在每日时间尺度上变得无效,因为观测涉及零观测值的很大一部分,并且仅限于非负值。我们开发了一种新颖的时空模型,可以使用左删减正态分布来估计复杂地形上每日时间尺度上的降水的全气候分布。结果表明,该新方法能够解决非正态分布和零观测的很大一部分问题。新的气候学以非常高的时空分辨率提供了完整的气候分布,即使在任意位置,也可以与现有方法竞争甚至胜过现有方法。

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