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Inference in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with possible weak identification

机译:具有可能弱识别的动态随机一般均衡模型的推断

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摘要

This paper considers inference in log-linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with weakly (including un-) identified parameters. The framework allows for analysis using only part of the spectrum, say at the business cycle frequencies. First, we characterize weak identification from a frequency domain perspective and propose a score test for the structural parameter vector based on the frequency domain approximation to the Gaussian likelihood. The construction heavily exploits the structures of the DSGE solution, the score function, and the information matrix. In particular, we show that the test statistic can be represented as the explained sum of squares from a complex-valued Gaussu2013Newton regression, where weak identification surfaces as (imperfect) multicollinearity. Second, we prove that asymptotically valid confidence sets can be obtained by inverting this test statistic and using chi-squared critical values. Third, we provide procedures to construct uniform confidence bands for the impulse response function, the time path of the variance decomposition, the individual spectrum, and the absolute coherency. Finally, a simulation experiment suggests that the test has adequate size even with relatively small sample sizes. It also suggests it is possible to have informative confidence sets in DSGE models with unidentified parameters, particularly regarding the impulse response functions. Although the paper focuses on DSGE models, the methods are applicable to other dynamic models with well defined spectra, such as stationary (factor-augmented) vector autoregressions.
机译:本文考虑了具有弱(包括未识别)参数的对数线性动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型的推理。该框架仅允许使用频谱的一部分进行分析,例如以业务周期频率进行分析。首先,我们从频域的角度描述弱识别的特征,并基于频域对高斯似然的近似,对结构参数向量提出分数测试。该构造大量利用了DSGE解决方案的结构,得分函数和信息矩阵。特别是,我们表明测试统计量可以表示为复杂值Gauss u2013Newton回归的解释平方和,其中弱标识表示为(不完美)多重共线性。其次,我们证明了可以通过反转该检验统计量并使用卡方临界值来获得渐近有效的置信度集。第三,我们提供了为脉冲响应函数,方差分解的时间路径,单个频谱和绝对相干性构建统一置信带的过程。最后,模拟实验表明,即使样本量相对较小,该测试也具有足够的大小。这也表明在具有未知参数的DSGE模型中可能具有信息可信度集,特别是关于脉冲响应函数。尽管本文着重于DSGE模型,但这些方法适用于具有明确定义的光谱的其他动态模型,例如平稳(因数增加)矢量自回归。

著录项

  • 作者

    Qu Zhongjun;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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