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Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies

机译:重温石油冲击对亚洲经济体的宏观经济影响

摘要

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their type. In addition, a country's oil-importing and -exporting status in the world oil market affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, subsample analysis shows a possible structural break in Japan and South Korea for all three types of oil shocks.
机译:本文使用结构矢量自回归模型分析了亚洲四个最大的石油消费国中石油冲击的宏观经济影响。我们通过标志限制来识别三种不同类型的石油冲击:石油供应冲击,全球经济活动驱动的石油需求冲击和特定石油需求冲击。主要结果表明,经济活动和价格对石油价格冲击的反应取决于它们的类型。此外,一个国家在世界石油市场上的石油进出口状况也影响着冲击的传递。最后,子样本分析显示,在这三种类型的石油冲击中,日本和韩国可能会发生结构性断裂。

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