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A multi-factor model for the valuation and risk management of demand deposits

机译:活期存款估值和风险管理的多因素模型

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摘要

How should we value and manage deposit accounts where deposits have a zero contractual maturity, but which, in practice, remain stable through time and are remunerated below market rates? Does the economic value of the deposit account differ from the face value and can we reliably measure it? To what extent is the economic value sensitive to yield curve changes? In this paper, we try to answer the above questions. The valuation is performed on yield curve, deposit rate and deposit balance data between December 1994 and June 2005 for a sample of Belgian bank retail savings deposits accounts. We find that the deposits premium component of Belgian savings deposits is economically and statistically significant, though sensitive to assumptions about servicing costs and outstanding balances average decay rates. We also find that deposit liability values depreciate significantly when market rates increase, thereby offsetting some of the value losses on the asset side. The hedging characteristics of deposit accounts depend primarily on the nature of the underlying interest rate shock (yield curve level versus slope shock) and on the average decay rate. We assess the reliability of the reported point estimates and also report corresponding duration estimates that results from a dynamic replicating portfolio model approach more commonly used by large international banks.
机译:如果存款的合同期限为零,但实际上却随着时间的流逝保持稳定并且其报酬低于市场利率,我们应该如何评估和管理存款账户?存款账户的经济价值是否不同于票面价值,我们可以可靠地对其进行计量吗?经济价值在多大程度上对收益率曲线变化敏感?在本文中,我们试图回答上述问题。该评估是根据1994年12月至2005年6月间比利时银行零售储蓄存款帐户样本的收益率曲线,存款利率和存款余额数据进行的。我们发现,比利时储蓄存款的存款溢价部分在经济和统计上都很重要,尽管对有关服务成本和未偿还余额平均衰减率的假设很敏感。我们还发现,当市场利率上升时,存款负债价值会大幅贬值,从而抵消了资产方面的部分价值损失。存款账户的对冲特征主要取决于潜在利率冲击的性质(收益率曲线水平对斜率冲击)和平均衰减率。我们评估报告的点估计的可靠性,并报告相应的期限估计,这些估计是由大型国际银行更常用的动态复制投资组合模型方法得出的。

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