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Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling

机译:通过模拟模型评估季节性气候预测对农场玉米生产的价值

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摘要

Rainfall variability greatly influences corn production. Thus, an accurate forecast is potentially of value to the farmers because it could help them decide whether to grow their corn now or to delay it for the next cropping opportunity. A decision tree analysis was applied in estimating the value of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information for corn farmers in Isabela. The study aims to estimate the value of SCF to agricultural decisionmakers under climate uncertainty. Historical climatic data of Isabela from 1951 to 2006 from PAGASA and crop management practices of farmers were used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to test the potential impact of climate change on corn. The approach is developed for a more accurate SCF and to be able to simulate corn yields for wet and dry seasons under different climatic conditions. While SCF may potentially affect a number of decisions including crop management practices, fertilizer inputs, and variety selection, the focus of the study was on the effect of climate on corn production. Improving SCF will enhance rainfed corn farmers' decisionmaking capacity to minimize losses brought about by variable climate conditions.
机译:降雨变化极大地影响了玉米产量。因此,准确的预测对农民有潜在的价值,因为它可以帮助农民决定是现在种植玉米还是推迟下一次种植机会。应用决策树分析来估算伊莎贝拉州玉米农的季节性气候预报(SCF)信息的价值。该研究旨在评估气候不确定性条件下SCF对农业决策者的价值。农业技术转让决策支持系统(DSSAT)使用了PAGASA 1951年至2006年伊莎贝拉的历史气候数据和农民的作物管理实践,以测试气候变化对玉米的潜在影响。开发该方法的目的是为了获得更精确的SCF,并且能够在不同气候条件下模拟潮湿和干燥季节的玉米产量。尽管SCF可能会影响许多决策,包括作物管理实践,肥料投入和品种选择,但研究的重点是气候对玉米产量的影响。改善SCF将增强雨育玉米农民的决策能力,以最大程度地减少由于气候变化带来的损失。

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