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The international crisis and Latin America: Growth effects and development strategies

机译:国际危机与拉丁美洲:增长效应与发展战略

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摘要

Latin America has been strongly affected by the international crisis and recession since late 2008. In comparison to historical experience, how has Latin America coped with the global crisis, which has been the role of different transmission mechanisms, and how have the region's structural and policy conditions affected its sensitivity to foreign shocks? Moreover, what policies can protect the region better from world crises and shocks, and to which extent should it rely on a strategy of close trade and financial integration into a world economy punctuated by shocks and crises? This paper addresses the latter questions in three steps. First, by assessing empirically the sensitivity of growth in the region's seven major economies during 1990-2009 to large number of structural and cyclical factors, based on high-frequency panel-data estimations. Second, by using the latter results to decompose the amplitude of GDP reductions in both recessions according to the individual and combined contribution of the different growth factors. Third, to derive the main implications of the results for the choice of macroeconomic regimes and development strategies.
机译:自2008年下半年以来,拉丁美洲一直受到国际危机和衰退的严重影响。与历史经验相比,拉丁美洲如何应对全球危机(这是各种传播机制的作用)以及该地区的结构和政策如何条件是否影响其对外国冲击的敏感性?此外,有哪些政策可以更好地保护该地区免受世界危机和冲击的冲击,在何种程度上应依靠紧密贸易和金融融入因冲击和危机而陷入世界经济的战略?本文分三个步骤解决了后面的问题。首先,根据高频面板数据估算,通过经验评估1990-2009年间该地区七个主要经济体的增长对大量结构和周期性因素的敏感性。其次,通过使用后者的结果,根据不同增长因素的个人贡献和综合贡献来分解两次衰退中GDP下降的幅度。第三,得出结果对选择宏观经济制度和发展战略的主要影响。

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