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Crimea and punishment: The impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies

机译:克里米亚和惩罚:制裁对俄罗斯和欧洲经济的影响

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摘要

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 resulted in bilateral economic sanctions imposed by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area (EA). The paper investigates the impact of sanctions on the real side of the economy of Russia and the EA. Using an index that measures intensity of sanctions the effects of sanctions shocks are analyzed by the means of structural vector autoregression. The direct effect on GDP growth is documented for Russia but not for the EA. While, on average, 1.97% of the GDP quarter-on-quarter growth is estimated to be lost due to sanctions by Russia, the corresponding estimate for the aggregate EA is very small. On the contrary, the indirect effect through depreciation of the currency is shown to be more important for the EA.
机译:2014年3月开始的俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突导致俄罗斯和西方国家(包括欧元区成员国)实施了双边经济制裁。本文调查了制裁对俄罗斯和EA经济实体的影响。使用衡量制裁强度的指数,通过结构矢量自回归分析了制裁冲击的影响。有记录显示,对俄罗斯的GDP增长有直接影响,但对EA却没有。尽管平均而言,由于俄罗斯的制裁,估计平均损失了GDP的季度环比增长1.97%,但相应的EA总预估值却很小。相反,对于EA来说,通过货币贬值产生的间接影响显得更为重要。

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