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Default risk and economic activity: A small open economy model with sovereign debt and default

机译:违约风险和经济活动:主权债务和违约的小型开放经济模型

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摘要

Empirical evidence shows that sovereign defaults are associated with significant downturns in economic activity in defaulting countries. However, the existing literature on sovereign debt and default mainly analyzes endowment economies and, therefore, does not address the relationship between default risk and macroeconomic dynamics. This paper develops a general equilibrium small open economy model with financial frictions that allows to simultaneously examine the behavior of output, investment and borrowing dynamics and its interaction with sovereign default. When calibrated to match the business cycles properties of an average emerging market economy, the model is able to reproduce the countercyclicality of net exports and sovereign spreads and the negative correlation between investment and net exports observed in the data. Furthermore, when analyzing its behavior around sovereign default, the model successfully captures the declines in output, consumption and investment that are actually associated with these episodes.
机译:经验证据表明,主权违约与违约国家经济活动的严重衰退有关。但是,现有有关主权债务和违约的文献主要分析了economies赋经济,因此,并未解决违约风险与宏观经济动态之间的关系。本文建立了一个具有金融摩擦的一般均衡的小型开放经济模型,该模型可以同时检验产出,投资和借贷动态的行为及其与主权违约的相互作用。经过校准以匹配平均新兴市场经济体的商业周期属性,该模型能够再现数据中观察到的净出口和主权利差的反周期性以及投资与净出口之间的负相关性。此外,在分析其围绕主权违约的行为时,该模型成功地捕获了与这些事件实际相关的产出,消费和投资的下降。

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    Roldue1n-Peuf1a Jessica;

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  • 年度 2012
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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