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Migrations, remittances and local development in Southern countries: Dutch disease or residential economy?

机译:南方国家的移民,汇款和地方发展:荷兰病还是住宅经济?

摘要

In developing countries, the contribution of the growing amount of migrant remittances to development remains an unsettled issue. At the macroeconomic level remittances do represent an external flow way above official aid and often in line with FDI. Hence the widely shared optimistic view about this until now "hidden source of development finance". At the microeconomic level remittances raise incomes and have an impact on consumption expenses and therefore on welfare. They can also finance investment in productive assets, such as physical capital and more conspicuously, human capital through education and health expenses. They can therefore improve the resilience of concerned household livelihoods, although it is not granted that remittances necessarily accrue to the poorest households. Remittances on the whole have an impact on poverty abatement but this impact can vary widely. At the meso-economic level relevant data show that migration and remittances concentrate in specific place, raising the issue of their contribution to local development of concerned areas. Concerning the impact of productive investments financed by remittances, picture is rather contrasted with contradictory results from various case-studies. Staying at the meso level, we will compare in this paper two models which have been used, albeit tentatively, to assess the contribution of remittances to local development. - Dutch disease approach, in its sub-national version which features the impact of remittances on real exchange rate. - Residential economy approach which rest on the use of a Keynesian export multiplier applied at an area level to an "economic base" which can be productive but also residential, remittances being considered as a component of this residential basis. These two approaches predict changes in the system of activities due to remittances. However their vision of the consequences of these changes diverge. Their comparative analysis can allow for the identification of key factors of remittance capability to shape a local development path. To achieve that, we shall draw from the huge literature on remittances relating to various countries as well as public statistical data bases.
机译:在发展中国家,不断增加的移民汇款对发展的贡献仍然是一个未解决的问题。在宏观经济层面,汇款确实代表着高于官方援助的外部流动方式,通常与外国直接投资保持一致。因此,迄今为止,人们对此普遍持乐观态度,认为这是“发展融资的隐性来源”。在微观经济层面,汇款增加了收入,并影响了消费支出,进而影响了福利。他们还可以通过教育和医疗费用为生产性资产(例如有形资本,更重要的是人力资本)的投资提供资金。因此,尽管未必一定会向最贫穷的家庭增加汇款,但它们可以提高有关家庭生计的抵御能力。汇款总体上对消除贫困有影响,但是这种影响可能相差很大。在中观经济水平上,相关数据表明移民和汇款集中在特定的地方,这增加了它们对有关地区当地发展的贡献问题。关于由汇款资助的生产性投资的影响,图片与各种案例研究的矛盾结果形成了鲜明对比。停留在中观水平上,我们将在本文中比较两个模型,尽管已初步尝试使用这两个模型来评估汇款对当地发展的贡献。 -荷兰疾病法,在其次国家版本中,其特征是汇款对实际汇率的影响。 -住宅经济方法,该方法基于在区域一级将凯恩斯主义出口乘数应用于“经济基础”,该基础既可以生产,也可以是住宅,汇款被视为该住宅基础的组成部分。这两种方法可以预测由于汇款而导致的活动系统的变化。但是,他们对这些变化的后果的看法各不相同。他们的比较分析可以确定形成本地发展路径的汇款能力的关键因素。为了实现这一目标,我们将借鉴有关各国汇款的大量文献以及公共统计数据库。

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  • 作者

    Requier-Desjardins Denis;

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  • 年度 2011
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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