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Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows

机译:美国非常规货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应:资本流动的作用

摘要

A growing literature stresses the importance of the 'global financial cycle', a common global movement in asset prices and credit conditions, for emerging market economies (EMEs). It is argued that one of the key drivers of this global cycle is monetary policy in the U.S., which is transmitted through international capital flows. In this paper, we add to this discussion and investigate empirically whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy (UMP) between 2008 and 2014 is related to financial conditions in EMEs, and, whether it is transmitted through portfolio flows. We find that a U.S. UMP shock significantly increases portfolio flows from the U.S. to EMEs for almost two quarters. The rise in inflows is accompanied by a persistent increase in several real and financial variables in EMEs. Moreover, we find that, on average, EMEs reacted with an easing of their own monetary policy stance in response to an expansionary U.S. shock.
机译:越来越多的文献强调“全球金融周期”对于新兴市场经济体(EME)的重要性,资产价格和信贷状况是全球共同的运动。有人认为,此全球周期的主要驱动力之一是美国的货币政策,该政策通过国际资本流动传递。在本文中,我们增加了讨论的内容,并通过实证研究了2008年至2014年之间的美国非常规货币政策(UMP)是否与新兴市场经济体的财务状况相关,以及是否通过投资组合流动传递。我们发现,美国UMP冲击显着增加了近两个季度从美国流向新兴市场经济体的投资组合流量。新兴市场经济体流入量的增加伴随着一些实际和财务变量的持续增加。此外,我们发现,新兴市场经济体平均而言会因美国扩张性冲击而放松其货币政策立场。

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