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Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Correctly Specified Generalized Autoregressive Score Models: Feedback Effects, Contraction Conditions and Asymptotic Properties

机译:正确指定的广义自回归分数模型的极大似然估计:反馈效应,收缩条件和渐近性质

摘要

The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in observation-driven models usually requires the study of the model both as a filter for the time-varying parameter and as a data generating process (DGP) for observed data. The probabilistic properties of the filter can be substantially different from those of the DGP. This difference is particularly relevant for recently developed time varying parameter models. We establish new conditions under which the dynamic properties of the true time varying parameter as well as of its filtered counterpart are both well-behaved and We only require the verification of one rather than two sets of conditions. In particular, we formulate conditions under which the (local) invertibility of the model follows directly from the stable behavior of the true time varying parameter. We use these results to prove the local strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. To illustrate the results, we apply the theory to a number of empirically relevant models.
机译:在观测驱动模型中,最大似然估计器的强一致性和渐近正态性通常要求对模型进行研究,既作为时变参数的过滤器,又作为观测数据的数据生成过程(DGP)。过滤器的概率性质可能与DGP的性质大不相同。这种差异与最近开发的时变参数模型特别相关。我们建立了新的条件,在该条件下,真实时变参数及其滤波后的对应参数的动态特性都表现良好,我们只需要验证一组条件即可,而无需验证两组条件。特别是,我们制定了条件,在该条件下,模型的(局部)可逆性直接来自真实时变参数的稳定行为。我们使用这些结果来证明最大似然估计的局部强一致性和渐近正态性。为了说明结果,我们将该理论应用于许多经验相关的模型。

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