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Separating attitudes towards money from attitudes towards probabilities: Stake effects and ambiguity as a test for prospect theory

机译:将对金钱的态度与对可能性的态度分开:利益效应和模糊性作为前景理论的检验

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摘要

Prospect theory (PT) is the dominant descriptive theory of decision making under risk today. For the modeling of choices, PT relies on a psychologically founded separation of risk attitudes into attitudes towards outcomes, captured in a value function; and attitudes towards probabilities, captured in a probability weighting function. However, while it is theoretically sound, it is unclear whether this clear separation is reflected in actual choices. To test this, we designed two experiments. In the first experiment, we elicit the value and probability weighting functions both under known and unknown probabilities. The results support PT and show that the value function is unaffected by the nature of the probabilities, which only affects probability weighting. More in general, this finding supports theories that represent ambiguity attitudes through probability transformations rather than utility transformations. In the second experiment, we examine the effects of an increase in stakes on risk attitudes. We find that the stake increase is not reflected in the value function, but rather in the weighting function, thus contradicting PT's prediction.
机译:前景理论(PT)是当今风险决策的主要描述性理论。对于选择的建模,PT依靠从心理上建立的将风险态度转变为对结果的态度的分离,这些态度被价值函数所捕获。概率加权函数中记录的对概率的态度。然而,尽管从理论上讲是合理的,但尚不清楚这种明显的分离是否反映在实际选择中。为了测试这一点,我们设计了两个实验。在第一个实验中,我们在已知和未知概率下得出了值和概率加权函数。结果支持PT,并表明值函数不受概率性质的影响,而概率性质仅影响概率加权。总的来说,这一发现支持通过概率变换而非效用变换来表示歧义态度的理论。在第二个实验中,我们检查了风险增加的风险增加了赌注的影响。我们发现赌注增加并不反映在价值函数中,而是反映在加权函数中,因此与PT的预测相矛盾。

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